On the day President Obama was elected president, in the midst of the jubilations, a lot of people missed the expression on his face.
He did not look like a man who had won the biggest prize in politics.
He looked like a guy saying to himself holy sh**t it has happened…now what?
He understood the responsibility and the expectation that weighed on his shoulders.
In the end, his instinct proved to be correct.
He was not able to accomplish the things he hoped to achieve and his replacement turned out to be the worst president in the history of the world.
President Obama did not fail because he was incompetent.
Au contraire, he might go down in history as one of the smartest persons to hold the office.
Yet, he failed.
Why Joe Biden Will Not Be Different
Having rehearsed for that moment for the last thirty years, Joe Biden do understand the enormous responsibility that comes with the job.
But can he pull it off?
I don’t think so.
He is going to fail for the same reason president Obama failed.
When the George Floyd demonstrations erupted, I told my friends, the demonstrations were not going to change anything.
There would be few token gestures at reform.
In the main, things are going to return to normal.
And I was proved right.
Why Am I Pessimistic
I know I am beginning to sound like a Cassandra.
But I am not.
I get paid to solve problems.
Experience have taught me that the first step in problem solving is identifying the root cause of the problem.
Those attempting to solve America’s problem and the problems of most Western nations for that matter do not conduct root cause analysis.
So, what is the root cause of a divided America…
A divided Britain….
A divided France….
Fill in the blank with your own Western nation.
The root cause of a divided America is institution.
Ironically, Western institutions are the bedrock of Western democracy.
Yet, it’s those same institutions that undermine the souls of Western nations.
There is nothing fundamentally wrong with Western institutions.
What is wrong is this, those institutions where built for a different era.
Until such time that Western nations acknowledge the fact that their institutions are not built for the 21st century, no amount of demonstration or election will solve the problems.
Exhibit One: The US Supreme Court
The most vexing issue for most African-Americans is the US justice system.
Most African-Americans keep complaining that the US justice system is broken.
Is the US justice system broken?
The US justice system is not broken.
The US justice system is functioning exactly how it was designed to function.
Let me illustrate this point with an example from Norway.
Norwegian Justice System
In 2011 Anders Breivik a Norwegian far-right killed over seventy of his fellow countrymen.
His punishment for killing over 70 people…twenty-five years in prison.
Yes, you read it right.
Why not life imprisonment for someone who massacre that amount of people?
Norway does not have life imprisonment.
Imagine, if he had committed similar offence in the US.
He would have been trapped to the electric chair and executed a long time ago.
Here is the interesting question.
Why doesn’t Norway have the death penalty or life imprisonment?
Because Norwegian justice system was designed to reform not punish.
Similar punishment regime is found in most Western countries except in countries with sizeable black population.
United States, UK, France and Australia have the harshest punishment regime in the world.
What does these countries have in common?
They all have a sizeable black population.
What Am I Trying to Say?
I am saying there is a straight line between fairness of the justice system, the severity of the punishment regime and the size of black population.
The justice system in United States, UK, France or Australia was not designed to reform.
It was deliberately designed as a control mechanism.
There can never be criminal justice reform in United States, UK, France or Australia.
Because the criminal justice system in those countries is not broken.
It has a design fault.
Therefore, what is needed is a redesign of the justice system to fall in line with justice systems around the civilised world.
Attempting to reform the justice system in these countries is akin to building a skyscraper on the foundation of a two story building.
Any logical thinking person knows how that would end.
Exhibit Two: The Electoral System
Electoral college aside, the US electoral system was redesigned to enable voter suppression after women and blacks were allowed to vote.
The electoral laws in many US states are deliberately designed to encourage voter suppression.
The Republicans noticed women and blacks tended to vote for the Democratic Party.
Anticipating what that could mean for their future electoral prospects, they engineered provisions that made it difficult for women and blacks to vote.
Provisions that remain part and parcel of the current US electoral system.
Until those provisions are removed, there can never be free and fair election in the US.
The US does not have monopoly over rigged electoral system.
The same rigged system is in the UK and many other Western democracies.
Back to Joe Biden’s Election Victory
The reason I am pessimistic about Mr. Biden’s ability to carry out the needed root and branch reform is, he is already calling for national unity.
National unity in the West is code for business as usual.
It’s ‘double speak’.
We need reform…but…we need the buy-in of the same rent collectors benefiting from the corrupt system
When have you ever seen a situation in which the beneficiaries of an oppressive system voluntarily give up their perks?
It has never happened.
And it would never happen.
In the end, we are going to end up with a repeat of the Southern concession.
What is the Southern Concession?
If you are a student of history, you will know the American civil war was fought over slavery.
The South was so dependent on slavery it was prepared to break up the country to maintain the industry.
Part of the peace agreement that ended the civil war included provisions that allowed the South to maintain the slave trade.
The provision included articles which allowed for escape slaves to be returned to the South.
In the end, even though slavey ended in the North, it was allowed to continue in the South as the price of peace.
This is exactly how a Biden race reform is going to be.
There will be a few token attempts at reform but the deep rooted root and branch reform that is needed is never going to plan out.
My prediction is Trump is going to return.
If Mr. Trump do not return, someone similar or even worse than him is going to win the 2024 election.
This is because minorities being disappointed with Mr. Biden are going to refuse to vote for the Democrats in the next election.
While we are busy being angry, Mr. Trump or his twin brother is going to quietly slip through the back door of the white house again.
I pray this does not happen.
But I am more convinced of such an outcome than a Biden reform.